Do not bother about any weather forecasts until the very last day. The weather in GB is far too unpredictable and changeable to get either worried or excited.
My assessment in General:
A wind: Wind is responsible for the wind drift of the boat and the wind swell. Both is highly disturbing and can spoil the fishing. Nothing is more deadly than a wind drift over a wreck. I would rate any wind over 10 knots as not good for drift fishing and over 15 knots really bad. Most charters will still go out, but the chances of catching drop dramatically with wind drift
B: Swell: Overrated factor. Swell is only relevant as a boating and safety issue (and for seasickness). In my experience it does not alter the fishing and can actually improve it by shaking things up. A big swell, however, can spoil the water clarity and also, in spring, can ignite algae bloom
C: Tide: Just to put a common misbelief to bed: Tides are not bad...Tides are GOOD for fishing. The bigger the tides are (within reason) the more active the fish get. Even at slack water (which is considerably shorter at big tides) the fish seem to be way more active on the wrecks then on those small tides. I also think that fishing is better at increasing tides. Big tides, alike swell, can spoil the clarity though. Also if the tides run with or against the wind, it can be unpleasant and difficult to get a good drift.
D: Currents: Underrated phenomenon---can totally dominate the fishing. Usually we get northbound currents, but we get all kind of currents, which can interfere with the tide....which can be good or terrible. A strong current, coming with wind and tide can totally spoil the fishing with drifts of 2knots in one tidal phase and after change of tide can be utterly brilliant
E: Water temps: We all know that Cod likes cold water and therefore will be inshore in winter and in deeper waters in summer. I think they like water around 4-10degrees. In summer you find these temps in 40m water and deeper...hence the success on wrecks at the 6-10nm range. Mackerels like warmer waters (alike tuna)
F: Daylight and light penetration: Our methods of fishing (drift fishing with lures) need a certain degree of visibility and light penetration to the deep. My experience is that fishing is best in the morning hours...about two hours after sunset, when the light penetrates but not too much. It usually slows down at lunchtime and picks up again in the afternoon. The dawn and dusk hours are not as good for that reason.
G: Moonphase: The moonphases correlate with the tides.
H: Water clarity: Hugely influenced by some of the above physics. Water clarity is hugely important for us. Rule of thumb: The clearer and the blueer the better...yet again within reason. clear water is also great for seals, dolphins and other hunters
I: Predators: seals, dolphins or porbeagles can switch off an entire wreck within a second. Ever wondered why fishing was minute excellent and suddenly turned dead...I bet a seal arrived.
Have I now fully confused you?!
My advise: The only forecastable variable in fishing is season and tides:
-avoid Feb-May: Usually very on/off fishing
-avoid the very small tides, unless you do ground fishing with baits
-avoid the very big tides unless you have free supply of lead
other than that: DO NOT bother about A to I and get yourself some sunglasses and hope for the best ! Some skippers are not bothered (or unaware) either, but some are miticulously tuned into them...and usually are the successful ones....
On days like last week, when the the wrecks and grounds are full of fish, it doesnt matter too much (it does matter though...have a look at the different catch reports from last Saturday and Sunday when the weather and drift changed)...but on those tricky days, an understanding of nature really helps the skipper to make the right decisions
GOOD LUCK
. This means for Newcastle area it will pull winds around it in an anti-clockwise direction but not too fast as the lines,isobars are wide spread. This will result in south west winds from Monday (ish) so should flatten the sea, not that it will need flattening as the end of this week will be westerly anyway.
